Thursday, January 1, 2009

How bad will slowdown be?

India averaged almost 9% growth over the past five years. A lower growth rate is almost inevitable. But the data of the past 30 years suggest that a complete collapse of growth below 5% is very unlikely.

The bigger problem that could trouble us this year is the state of finances—both in overleveraged companies and a government that has run up large fiscal deficits. An inability to finance them could unsettle the Indian economy in 2009.
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